"China May Be on Course To Overtake U.S. Economy"
Charles Hutzler, Wall Street Journal
During the 1950s, China's communist government boasted that its economy would surpass Britain's in 15 years and catch up with the U.S.'s in 30. The prediction proved disastrously wrong, as did Mao Zedong's policies, which brought the economy to ruin.
But now, a half-century later, many economists say those goals look more attainable. Having grown an estimated 9.2% last year and maintained an inflation-adjusted average annual growth rate of 8% or more for the past 25 years, China's economy seems to be on a trajectory to one day overtake the U.S.'s, which has been growing at an inflation-adjusted average annual rate of about 3% for the past 25 years.
Predicting when China will achieve economic primacy isn't an exact science; it depends heavily on assumptions about future rates of growth and currency valuations, among other factors. When economists surveyed last month by The Wall Street Journal were asked to predict when — if ever — this would happen, the projections varied widely. Some economists said "never" while a few didn't even bother to take a guess, but most economists said China will overtake the U.S. in the next 20 to 40 years.
