Intimations of Recession
Paul Krugman
These are the dog days of summer, but there's a chill in the air. Suddenly —
really just in the last few weeks — people have starting talking seriously
about a possible recession. And it's not just economists who seem worried.
Goldman Sachs recently reported that the confidence of chief executives at
major corporations has plunged; a clear majority of C.E.O.'s now say that
conditions in the world economy, and the U.S. economy in particular, are
worsening rather than improving.
On the face of it, this loss of faith seems strange. Recent growth and jobs
numbers have been disappointing, but not disastrous.
But economic numbers don't speak for themselves. They always have to be
interpreted as part of a story. And the latest numbers, while not that bad
taken out of context, seem inconsistent with the stories optimists were
telling about the U.S. economy.
The key point is that the forces that caused a recession five years ago
never went away. Business spending hasn't really recovered from the slump it
went into after the technology bubble burst: nonresidential investment as a
share of G.D.P., though up a bit from its low point, is still far below its
levels in the late 1990's. Also, the trade deficit has doubled since 2000,
diverting a lot of demand away from goods produced in the United States.