Sandinista Wins Worry U.S.:

Leftists Making Political Gains in Nicaragua

Hugh Dellios, Chicago Tribune

MANAGUA, Nicaragua — As leftist leaders make gains across Latin America, an old U.S. adversary from the 1980s contra war has set off alarm bells in Washington: Daniel Ortega's Sandinistas.

The Sandinista Front won 87 of Nicaragua's 152 mayoral posts in elections this month, making significant inroads against a right-wing ruling faction divided by infighting and corruption scandals. Analysts say the victories also reflect the leftist party's success in running several cities efficiently and fairly.At a time when the United States is fending off a growing chorus of leftist criticism in the region, Bush administration officials worry the victories will boost Ortega's chances of winning back the presidency he lost when Nicaraguans voted him out in 1990 after a decade of socialist rule and war against the U.S.-backed contras.

"People have begun to lose their fear of the Sandinista Front," said Herty Lewites, the popular Sandinista mayor of Managua who is leaving office but was praised for his governing of the city in the past four years.

Not so in Washington. The U.S. State Department recently dispatched one of its top Latin America specialists, Dan Fisk, to Managua to meet with right-wing leaders and emphasize Washington's concern that they could help Ortega win in 2006 if they don't settle their differences and reunite.

A week earlier, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited in a show of U.S. support for embattled President Enrique Bolanos. Rumsfeld also urged Nicaraguan officials to destroy hundreds of 1980s-era surface-to-air missiles that U.S. officials fear could fall into the hands of terrorists.

The developments come after a string of victories by leftist leaders across the region, at least in part because of frustrations over the failure of free-trade agreements and other U.S.-backed neoliberal policies to alleviate poverty and other problems.

Last month, Uruguay elected its first leftist president, Tabare Vazquez, adding to a growing bloc of leftist leadership headed by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Conservative Nicaraguans fear Ortega would take the country in the more radical direction of Cuban leader Fidel Castro and maverick Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

"There is a lot of concern," said Eduardo Montealegre, a former government minister and banker whom many see as a leading presidential candidate for the right in 2006. "If (the Sandinistas) win the presidency, the fault will be ours."

U.S. officials believe the key to containing Ortega is persuading leaders of Nicaragua's Liberal Constitutional Party, or PLC, to drop their fierce allegiance to former President Arnoldo Aleman, who last year began serving a 20-year prison sentence on corruption charges but still wields extraordinary power over the party.

Bolanos pushed for the prosecution of Aleman after succeeding him in 2001, but that split the party, costing Bolanos most of his support. Aleman's followers, who control the majority in the National Assembly, have since been feuding with Bolanos and blocking his initiatives.

The Assembly is trying to strip powers from the president and investigate questions about his campaign contributions. It also passed a law allowing it to block any destruction of military weapons, just days after Bolanos promised Rumsfeld that all the 1980s missiles would be destroyed before Bolanos left office.

Aleman's followers and Sandinista legislators have worked together on many of the measures. Bolanos' allies and others believe the unusual alliance is part of a pact between Aleman and Ortega with the aim of winning Aleman's release from prison.

Much of Nicaragua's judicial system is believed to be controlled by Ortega through dozens of judges named when the Sandinistas ruled the country.

"It's hard to understand the tremendous loyalty (the PLC leaders) have for (Aleman)," said Barbara Moore, U.S. ambassador to Nicaragua, who has hosted meetings trying to get the right wing to put aside its differences.

"Arnoldo Aleman stole from this country and represents the corrupt practices that the U.S. finds intolerable. This is the second-poorest country in the hemisphere. Children don't have enough to eat. The government should be looking out for the weakest rather than ripping off the country for their own benefit."

Several PLC leaders publicly chafed at Fisk's stern message last week, while the Sandinistas accused the United States of again meddling in Nicaraguan affairs.

In Washington, too, critics of the Bush administration warned that its intervention could backfire if it is seen as too heavy-handed.

"They detest Ortega and the Sandinistas. Remember that this is what almost brought down the Reagan government, the Iran-contra scandal," said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington.

"I think Ortega would probably be a disaster (if he were president again), but so are the Liberals."

U.S. officials say they are only trying to "facilitate" dialogue among what they call Nicaragua's "democratic forces."

"We try to be careful in not stepping over the line," Moore said in an interview.

Some Nicaraguan conservatives were hoping the Sandinista victories in the mayoral elections would scare the right wing into coming together. But the immediate reaction to Fisk's visit was not all that encouraging.

Many PLC leaders owe their positions to Aleman. Others believe he has leverage because he knows who was involved in his government's corrupt practices. Others point to his resilient popularity among many Nicaraguans.

"This isn't a crisis," said Jamileth Bonilla, a PLC legislator and Aleman loyalist. "Aleman continues to carry weight on the political scene, and whoever our candidate is, he will need (Aleman's support)."

During the mayoral elections, Bolanos and his allies tried to offer a third alternative to Aleman and Ortega by creating a party, the Alliance for the Republic. But the new organization won only seven mayoral seats, as more than half the voters expressed their disgust by just staying home.